The latest exit poll data from Today’s Chanakya suggests that the DMK-led alliance is on track to secure a majority in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, potentially marking a second consecutive term for Chief Minister MK Stalin.
Key Seat Projections
The pollster’s figures indicate a significant shift in the state’s political landscape, particularly with the entry of actor-politician Vijay’s TVK:
| Alliance/Party | Predicted Seats | Margin of Error | Vote Share % |
| DMK+ (Incumbent) | 125 | ±11 | 39% |
| TVK (Debut) | 63 | ±11 | 30% |
| AIADMK+ | 45 | ±11 | 27% |
Note: 118 seats are required for a simple majority.
Analysis of the Landscape
While Today’s Chanakya projects a clear path for the DMK, the rise of the TVK is the headline story. The party is predicted to emerge as the primary challenger, potentially pushing the established AIADMK-BJP alliance into third place.
However, predictions vary wildly across different pollsters:
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Axis My India: Suggests a “neck-and-neck” battle between DMK (92–110) and TVK (98–120).
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Praja Poll & Matrize: Predict a much stronger lead for the DMK, with the TVK reaching only single or low double digits.
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JVC: Remains the outlier, predicting an outright victory for the AIADMK+ alliance (128–147 seats).
Voter Turnout and Results
Tamil Nadu recorded a massive voter turnout of over 82%. While these exit polls provide an early glimpse into voter sentiment, the official counting of votes is scheduled for Monday, which will determine the final composition of the Assembly.
